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EU–Brazil Trade Policy

Where European policy
meets Brazilian reality.

The convergence of the EU–Mercosur ratification process, EUDR enforcement, CBAM introduction, and EU Taxonomy deployment has created the most consequential regulatory inflection point in EU–Brazil relations in a generation. We navigate it from both sides simultaneously.

Four regulatory frameworks.
None designed to read the others.

On 1 May 2026, the EU–Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement entered provisional application. Tariff reductions on more than 90% of bilateral trade are now operational. The European Parliament consent vote is projected for 2028.

Simultaneously: EUDR enforcement began. CBAM phased introduction continued. The EU Taxonomy is being pressure-tested for deployment into markets without EPC systems. None of these frameworks was designed to interact with the others — and none can be navigated in isolation by a single-domain advisor.

This is precisely the moment Nostrum was built for.

EUR 111B
Annual EU–Mercosur
trade in goods (2024)
1 May 2026
iTA provisional
application
2028
EP consent vote
projected
4
Converging EU regulatory
frameworks

The dependency runs
in both directions.

The conventional EU–Mercosur framing asks: does Brazilian agriculture meet European standards? The question is structurally incomplete.

European livestock production depends on Brazilian soy protein without a competitive short-term alternative. More than 50% of Brazilian soybean meal exports flow to the Netherlands, France, and Spain. Without that supply, European pork, poultry, and cattle sectors cannot operate at competitive cost.

Brazil, meanwhile, sends the majority of its raw soybean exports to China. Brazilian exporters have alternatives. European livestock producers do not.

Understanding the dependency structure as it actually is — not as it is assumed to be — is the analytical foundation of any credible EU–Brazil agricultural strategy.

EU dependency

European livestock needs Brazilian soy

More than 50% of Brazilian soybean meal exports go to EU member states. There is no competitive short-term alternative for European livestock production at current volumes and price points.

Brazil's alternatives

Brazil has Chinese market access

65% of Brazilian raw soybean exports go to China. Brazilian exporters are actively diversifying their partnerships. The commercial dependency is not symmetrical — and Brussels' negotiating posture should reflect this.

The geopolitical shift

US retraction. China's expansion.

US multilateral engagement has retracted. China's commercial expansion in Latin America has accelerated. Mercosur bloc members are diversifying. Europe's window to consolidate its position in the most consequential emerging market bilateral is open — and finite.

Five capabilities.
One bilateral relationship.

Trade Policy
EU–Mercosur Ratification Strategy

Evidence architecture and parliamentary engagement for the EU–Mercosur consent vote projected for 2028. We build the institutional narratives, stakeholder strategies, and evidence frameworks that shape parliamentary positioning — and engage formally at institutional level across the European Parliament's AGRI and INTA committees.

Regulatory
EUDR & CBAM Compliance Architecture

Translating EU deforestation regulation and carbon border adjustment requirements into actionable compliance frameworks for Brazilian exporters and their European counterparties. Brazil's Forest Code, CAR registration, and cooperative certification infrastructure represent a compliance foundation that European supply chain due diligence frameworks need to learn to read — not rewrite.

Intelligence
Agricultural Geopolitics

Continuous monitoring of EU–Brazil agricultural dependency dynamics, Safeguard Regulation activation, political group positioning in the European Parliament, and bilateral market structure. We provide the analytical depth that allows institutional actors to engage with the EU–Brazil agricultural relationship correctly — from the evidence base, not from assumptions.

Institutional
European Parliament Engagement

Formal engagement with EP committees — AGRI and INTA primarily — through Nostrum's EU Transparency Register registration and Gregory Mathieu's direct operational knowledge of EU institutional mechanics. We engage parliamentary staff, committee secretariats, and political group advisors with the evidence that structures their positions.

Development Finance
Global Gateway & DFI Positioning

Positioning Brazilian and EU institutions for engagement with Global Gateway instruments, IDB, AFD, IFC, GCF, and EIB Advisory — connecting trade policy with the development finance architecture that gives it institutional permanence.

The window between
provisional application and consent.

The iTA is in provisional application. The CJEU is expected to deliver its opinion no earlier than late 2027. After that opinion, the Parliament issues a consent vote requiring only a simple majority.

The window between now and that vote is precisely the period during which the evidence that shapes parliamentary positioning must be produced, validated, and placed in the institutional ecosystem.

Nostrum operates in this window — from both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously.

1 May 2026
iTA Provisional Application

Tariff reductions on 90%+ of bilateral trade now operational. European automotive, pharma, spirits, and machinery sectors are current beneficiaries.

2026–2027
Evidence & Parliamentary Positioning

The active window. Evidence produced, validated by independent institutional voices, and placed in the Brussels ecosystem. Parliamentary staff engaged. Sector actors mobilised.

Late 2027
CJEU Opinion Expected

Court of Justice delivers its opinion on the CJEU referral. The consent vote timeline crystallises. Final mobilisation phase begins.

Early–Mid 2028
EP Consent Vote (Projected)

Simple majority required. The evidence infrastructure built in 2026–2027 determines the margin. This is the institutional destination.

Bilateral presence.
Formal institutional standing.

EU Transparency Register

Both Nostrum Public Affairs and GBC Brasil are registered on the EU Transparency Register. This is not a formality — it is the institutional standing that allows formal engagement with EU institutions, declared participation in parliamentary processes, and credible positioning as an evidence-based actor rather than a lobbying organisation.

Operationally Active on Both Sides

São Paulo for Brazil-side operational intelligence, field programme coordination, and institutional relationships across government, agribusiness, and finance. Brussels for parliamentary engagement, Commission directorate relationships, and member state representation access — led by Gregory Mathieu, former Chief of Staff in the Belgian federal government.

Evidence, Not Lobbying

Every engagement we lead is designed around independently validated evidence — produced on the ground, certified by institutional validators, and structured to withstand scrutiny from opposition voices. This is the distinction between advocacy that moves positions and lobbying that entrenches them.

EU Transparency Register
Nostrum Public Affairs · GBC Brasil
EP Committees
AGRI · INTA
Commission
DG FISMA · DG INTPA · DG ENER · DG AGRI
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Navigating EU–Brazil complexity
from both sides of the Atlantic.

Whether you are a European institution engaging with Brazil, a Brazilian exporter navigating EUDR or CBAM,
or a company with a stake in the EU–Mercosur ratification outcome — we welcome the conversation.

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